Each estimate starts from the school's own admit rate, then moves in log-odds with how your academics, activities, essay and hooks compare with the school's typical admit. The result is a range, not one number: the less we know about you, the wider it gets.
1. The starting rate
The school's published admit rate from its Common Data Set, or the College Scorecard when there is no usable Common Data Set. Where residency matters and the school publishes separate rates, we use the rate for your residency (out-of-state when we don't know where you live). For an early round we use the school's published early rate, discounted to 60% of the gap because early pools include recruited athletes and legacies. When a school publishes no Regular Decision rate we use 85% of its overall rate.
2. Academic Index
A 0–100 score: GPA 40%, course rigor 25%, test score 25% and class rank 10%. Rigor counts the AP, IB, AICE, dual-enrollment and honors courses you took against what your school offers. AP and IB exam scores are not part of it. Florida public universities and the University of California use their own recalculated GPAs and weights.
Each school has a typical admit's Academic Index, from its test-score range (adjusted for how many admits submit scores) or its published GPA. Being above it raises your odds a little; being below lowers them more, down to a floor of -3 in log-odds.
3. Activities, essay and hooks
Each activity gets a level from 1 (national, professional or truly unusual) to 4 (typical participation), from the facts your own activities list states, and Levels 2 and 3 carry a + or − from code-checked strengths and weaknesses. Your activities rating runs from 1 to 4 with + and −. It is compared with what the school usually expects; a strong activity in your intended major adds 0.25 in log-odds.
The essay is your own honest rating of your essay, from terrible (-0.3) to spectacular (+0.3). It has a small effect because readers are unpredictable. Essay-grader scores are writing feedback and don't change your chances.
Early Decision adds up to +0.6, Early Decision II +0.4, Restrictive Early Action +0.3 and Early Action +0.15. Legacy adds +0.5 where the school considers it, first-generation +0.3, and contact with a coach +0.3. A coach-supported recruited athlete starts from recruited athletes' admit rate (80%) instead. All adjustments together are capped at ±3 in log-odds.
4. Range and label
The point estimate stays between 1% and 97%, and at schools under 10% admit it is capped at 40%. The range widens with each missing input: no test score, no evaluated activities, an unrated essay, a typed rather than calculated GPA.
The label comes from the range. Safety: even the low end is 80% or more. Likely: the low end is 55% or more. Target: the low end is 25% or more. Reach: the high end reaches 10%. Unlikely: below that. Schools under 10% admit are never Safety or Likely, except for a coach-supported recruited athlete.
5. What it can't see
Recommendations, interviews, institutional priorities, the strength of your school, and how readers respond to your writing. Estimates are a framework, not a prediction. With no GPA there is no estimate at all: add your GPA in the GPA calculator.